India's agricultural sector is facing growing uncertainty as changing weather patterns, below-normal rainfall and declining fertiliser consumption raise concerns about crop production and food prices.
The developing El Niño phenomenon could create additional challenges for farmers, potentially affecting agricultural output, food availability and the cost of essential commodities.
As agriculture remains heavily dependent on seasonal rainfall, prolonged dry conditions could have consequences extending beyond farms and into India's food supply chain.
1. Below-Normal Rainfall Raises Agricultural Concerns
India recorded approximately 12.6% below-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season from June to September 2026.
Several regions, including South India, Marathwada, Vidarbha, Saurashtra, Kutch, Rajasthan, Bihar and parts of the Northeast, experienced significant rainfall deficits.
Insufficient rainfall affects soil moisture, water availability and crop development. Even when farmers maintain their cultivated acreage, inadequate water can affect crop growth and productivity.
The October 2026 rainfall deficit has added further concerns as farmers begin preparing for the Rabi cropping season.
2. Declining Fertiliser Sales Signal Weak Farmer Demand
One of the notable developments is the decline in fertiliser sales between April and September 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
Sales declined across major fertiliser categories, including urea, despite higher domestic production and imports.
This suggests that farmers may be purchasing and applying less fertiliser due to unfavourable weather conditions.
Fertiliser application is an important part of crop nutrition and agricultural productivity. When rainfall is inadequate, farmers may delay or reduce fertiliser application, potentially affecting crop yields.
3. El Niño Could Affect the Rabi Season
El Niño is a climate phenomenon associated with changes in ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It can influence global weather patterns, including India's monsoon and winter conditions.
Forecasts cited in the November 2026 report indicate that the current strong-to-very-strong El Niño event could persist through January–March 2027 before weakening.
For Indian agriculture, the potential consequences include:
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Reduced soil moisture due to insufficient rainfall.
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Higher temperatures during the winter season.
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Challenges in maintaining crop productivity.
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Increased irrigation requirements.
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Potential reductions in agricultural yields.
The Rabi season is particularly important for crops such as wheat, mustard, pulses and other winter-grown agricultural commodities.
4. Rising Food Inflation Could Affect Consumers
Weather disruptions can influence food prices through their impact on agricultural production and supply.
India's year-on-year food inflation reportedly increased from 4.2% in April to over 7.7% in September 2026.
If crop yields decline due to inadequate rainfall and higher temperatures, the supply of essential agricultural commodities could tighten.
This could put additional pressure on prices of:
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Pulses and lentils
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Wheat and other cereals
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Edible oils
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Sugar
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Vegetables and other food commodities
For households, higher food prices can increase monthly expenses. For food manufacturers and businesses, rising raw material costs can affect procurement, production costs and profit margins.
5. What Can India Do to Reduce the Impact?
Managing agricultural risks requires both immediate interventions and long-term planning.
Some potential measures include:
Import flexibility: Reducing import duties on essential commodities such as pulses, sugar and edible oils can help supplement domestic supply when production falls short.
Climate-resilient agriculture: Investment in drought-resistant crop varieties and climate-smart agricultural practices can help farmers adapt to unpredictable weather.
Efficient fertiliser utilisation: Encouraging balanced fertiliser application and better nutrient management can improve agricultural efficiency.
Water conservation: Expanding efficient irrigation systems, rainwater harvesting and water-management practices can help reduce dependence on seasonal rainfall.
Agricultural research: Investment in crop breeding, soil health and climate forecasting can strengthen India's long-term food security.
Conclusion: Climate Risks Could Shape India's Food Economy
The developing El Niño event highlights the vulnerability of India's agricultural sector to changing climatic conditions.
Declining fertiliser sales, rainfall deficits and potential disruptions to the Rabi season deserve close attention from policymakers, farmers and businesses.
The impact may extend beyond agricultural production, influencing food prices, commodity availability, manufacturing costs and consumer spending.
Strengthening climate-resilient agriculture, improving water efficiency and maintaining stable food supplies will be essential to protecting India's food economy in the coming years.
Source: Based on agricultural and economic developments reported by The Indian Express, November 2, 2026. This article is an independently written analysis, not a reproduction of the original editorial.